The Must Read PSA Weekly Research Round-up (week to 14 November)
Reports / Flash Notes Summaries
1. Anicom FY25 1H Ahead of Plan
Small- / mid-cap analyst Hiroyuki Terada reviews the FY25 performance by Insource and adjusts his forecasts, introducing his FY28 outlook. Valuations remain undemanding and the FY28 PSAe dividend yield offers an attractive 4.9%.
2. M&A Capital Partners (6080 JT): Giant Deals Seem to Be in Pipeline
With the proportion of large-sized deals rising +3.4ppts QoQ in the Q4, and with management noting that there are several large-commission (¥500mil+) deals in the pipeline, analyst Hiroyuki Terada reviews MACP’s FY26 outlook. He also revises his forecasts and introduces his FY28 numbers. The stock offers both value and growth.
3. SBI Holdings (8473 JT) to IPO SBI Shinsei Bank
Ahead of SBI Holding’s plan to IPO SBI Shinsei Bank [17 Dec], Pelham Smithers takes us through the deal and considers valuations.
4. Toyota Industries (6201 JT) More Pressure on Toyota Group as Elliott Mgt Steps In
Toyota Industries’ buyout proposal met with much resistance among minority shareholders when details were announced in June. Analyst Julie Boote discusses the chances of a more favourable deal being offered now that activist investor Elliott Management has entered the scene, challenging the Toyota Group over the acquisition price and transparency.
Company News / Sights
Readthrough for SBI as Ripple decides against IPO
Koei Tecmo’s Hyrule Warriors Age of Imprisonment debuts with 73,183 sales in Japan
Industry Insights
Risks and opportunities in video game stocks as we head into Black Friday
Global semi shipments rise +28% YoY in September
Macro / Market / Misc.
Takaichi signals how fiscal policy is to be loosened
Japanese bank lending continues to accelerate
China data suggests economy slowing again
Company Previews / Results
Sony FY25 Q2 OP +10% YoY, revises up full-year
CyberAgent’s ABEMA finally profitable; FY26 guidance misses; new president announced
Nidec to release FY25 Q1 results at last
Kioxia FY25 Q2 OP -48% YoY
Dexerials’ rising image as an AI-related play
TOK’s strong Q3
KHI Q2 OP disappoints
Fujikura sinks on Trump promise
Subaru keeps FY25 guidance
Isuzu lowers FY25 auto sales forecast, keeps financial guidance
Bridgestone FY25 Q3 results beat estimates
Cover’s FY25 Q2 misses
Trend Micro’s Q3 beats; keeps full-year guidance
Sony Financial FY25 Q2 PTNP -10% YoY
Net Protections revises FY25 guidance upward again
SRE Holdings misses consensus OP, maintains full-year forecasts
ExaWizards smashes consensus OP, raises forecast
Appier’s FY25 Q3 preview
Internet Initiative Japan’s FY25 Q2 beat
PKSHA beats consensus estimates FY25 Q4 and full-year sales
Intermestic FY25 Q3 OP +7.7% YoY; mulling an upward revision for the full-year
Anicom FY25 1H ahead of plan
Moriya’s new guidance still looks conservative
Japan Elevator Service: solid maintenance and modernization in H1
Hitomile H1 OP ahead of plan
Lilycolor & Novarese FY25 Q3 better than plan, positive for TKP
The Weekly Comment by Pelham Smithers
Weekly comment text goes here.
Company / Sector / Thematic Comments at a Glance
Technology: Consumer Electronics, Gaming
1. Risks and Opportunities in Video Game Stocks as We Head to Black Friday
2. Sony FY25 Results Q2 OP +10% YoY, Revises Up Full-Year
3. Hyrule Warriors Age of Imprisonment Debuts with 73,183 Sales in Japan
4. CyberAgent: ABEMA Finally in the Black; FY26 CE Below Consensus; New President Announced
5. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Technology: Industrial Electronics / Components / Semis & SPE / Precision
6. Global Semiconductor Shipments +28% YoY in September
7. Nidec is to Release FY25 Q1 Results At Last
8. Kioxia FY25 Q2 OP -48% YoY
9. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Chemicals / Materials
10. Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Lowers Full-Year Guidance
11. Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Sees a Strong Q3
12. Dexerials’ Rising Image as an AI-related Play
13. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Autos / New Mobility
14. Subaru Keeps its FY25 Guidance
15. Isuzu Lowers FY25 Unit Sales Target, Leaves FY25 Guidance Unchanged / Strong Market Reaction
16. Bridgestone FY25 Q3 Results Beat Estimates
17. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Capital Goods / Machinery / Auto Parts
18. KHI Q2 OP -52% YoY Disappoints
19. Fujikura Sinks on Trump Promise
20. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Internet / eCommerce
21. Cover’s FY25 Q2 Misses
22. Trend Micro’s Q3 Beats; Keeps Full-year Guidance Unchanged
23. Rakuten Posted its First IFRS OP in Six Years for FY25 Q1~3
24. Net Protections Revises FY25 Guidance Upward Again
25. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Enterprise Software / IT Services
26. PKSHA Beats Consensus Estimates for FY25 Q4 and Full-Year Sales
27. IIJ Reports FY25 Q2 Outperformance
28. Appier: FY25 Q3 Preview
29. SRE Holdings Misses Consensus OP, Maintains Full-Year Forecasts
30. ExaWizards Smashes Consensus OP, Raises Forecast
FinTech
31. Readthrough for SBI as Ripple Decides Against IPO
32. Sony Financial FY25 Q2 PTNP -10% YoY
33. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Small- / Mid-Cap Insights
34. Anicom FY25 Ahead of Plan
35. Intermestic Q3 OP +7.7% YoY, Likely to Revise Up Full-year
36. Moriya’s New Guidance Looks Still Conservative
37. Japan Elevator Service: Solid Maintenance and Modernization in H1
38. Hitomile’s H1 OP ahead of Plan.
39. Lilycolor & Novarese Q3s Better than Plan Positive for TKP
Macro / Market / Strategy / Misc.
40. Takaichi Signals How Fiscal Policy is to be Loosened
41. Japanese Bank Lending Continues to Accelerate
42. China Data Suggests Economy Slowing Again
43. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
PSA in the Press
Honda Shares Fall as Nexperia Chip Shortage Weighs: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [11 Nov]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Julie Boote)
Company “seems to be the worst affected” among Japanese automakers by Nexperia chip shortage
If Nexperia export stop lasts longer, there could be another downward revision for the company
Expects to see a negative reaction from the markets as the company made another downgrade to its full-year forecast
NOTE: China Resumes Nexperia Chip Export, Urges EU to Make Progress
Sony Shares Continue Ascent From 2Q Results: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [12 Nov]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Pelham Smithers)
The overall performance for the company was good: “Thanks to anime, Music is even more of a cash cow”
Gaming sector has now moved from being a very volatile earnings generator to a much stabler one
The company threw in a ¥100 billion share buyback which is “at least a gesture”.
Kioxia Shares Drop 23% After 2Q Earnings Undershoot Expectations – Bloomberg [14 Nov]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Pelham Smithers)
There was “over exuberance on the sell side analyst community front” going into earnings
Firm seems to have slightly cut wafer production as it transitions from quad-level cell to triple-layer cell processes, which likely contributed to earnings shortfall
PC-led revenue is strong and smart device demand is improving, however — company consensus could prove to be conservative
Kioxia Shares Dive Their Most Ever After AI Outlook Disappoints – Bloomberg [14 Nov]
https://bit.ly/4p3XXKa
Excerpt: PC-led revenue is also strong and smart device demand is improving, and company consensus could prove to be conservative, according to Pelham Smithers, managing director of Pelham Smithers Associates. Wafer production cuts due to technological upgrades likely contributed to the earnings shortfall, he added.
PSA Company Visits, Tours and Interviews
Visited: Moriya Transportation Engine & Mfg (6226 JT), M&A Capital Partners (6080 JT), Sanrio (8136 JT), Open Up Group (2154 JT), CUC (9158 JT), TDK (6762 JT), UBE Corp (4208 JT)
1-1 Call with: Intermestic (626A JT), Hitomile (7686 JT), Anicom Holdings (8715 JT), Lilycolor (9827 JT), TKP (3479 JT), Toyota Motor (7203 JT)
Small Meeting with: Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JT)
Presentations at: Japan Elevator Services Holdings (6544 JT) , Anicom Holdings, Amvis Holdings, Nissan Chemical (4021 JT), Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (4182 JT), Nippon Shokubai (4114 JT), Mitsui Chemicals (4183 JT), Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186 JT), Nissha (7915 JT), Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JT), Kuraray (3405 JT), Fujimi Inc (5384 JT), Tekscend Photomask (429A), Kaneka (4118 JT), Kureha (4023 JT), Dexerials (4980 JT), Toho Titanium (5727 JT), Resonac Holdings (4004 JT), Toray (3402 JT), Nidec (6594 JT), Appier (4180 JT), Rakuten (4755 JT), CyberAgent (4751 JT), Nidec (6594 JT)
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