The Must Read PSA Weekly Research Round-up (week to 16 May)
Reports / Flash Notes Summaries
MARI (9552 JT) – FY25 Q2 and Beyond
Small- / mid-cap specialist Hiroyuki Terada updates us on his reduced forecasts for M&A Research Institute, noting that his preferred play is M&A Capital Partners (6080 JT).
Industry Insights
Video games round-up
Tough times again for Japan’s “Fallen Hero” exporters
Miscellaneous / Market / Macro
Multiple business service stocks hitting 52-week highs
Bank lending slows to +2.5% YoY
Japan PPI +4.0% YoY in April
Japan CY25 Q1 GDP -0.2% QoQ / +1.6% YoY
The “30.10” deal gives BoJ room to raise rates
Company Insights: News / Previews & Results
Panasonic’s “peeling an onion” problem
Sony FY24 Q4 OP -11% YoY, FY25 CE below consensus / problems resurface on live service side
Video Game Makers’ results:
Sega Sammy, Nexon, Capcom, Square Enix, CyberAgent
Auto & Auto-related results:
Mazda / Suzuki / Honda / Nissan / Subaru / Isuzu / Bridgestone
KHI sees high volume rethink
Fujikura FY25 OP guidance -10% YoY but Furukawa upside surprise
Healthcare / Pharma results:
Shimadzu, Olympus, PeptiDream / Sysmex / Eisai
ERP Software / IT Services results:
SRE Holdings / Internet Initiative Japan / PKSHA / ExaWizards / Appier
Internet / eCommerce results:
istyle / Cover Corp / Rakuten / Net Protection
Small- / Mid-Cap results:
Japan Elevator Service / Moriya Transport & Eng Manufacturing / Kyoritsu Maintenance / TKP subsidiaries
The Weekly Comment by Pelham Smithers
Ahead of the launch of the Switch 2, Japanese video game sales have all but dried up. This puts a premium on those game publishers with content for the Switch 2 at launch, explains Pelham Smithers
Company / Sector / Thematic Comments at a Glance
Technology: Consumer Electronics, Gaming
1. Video Games Round-Up
2. Panasonic’s “Peeling an Onion” Problem
3. Sega Sammy FY24 Q4 OP Ahead of Consensus; Lowballing FY25 Outlook
4. Nexon FY25 Q1 OP +43% YoY Beats Expectations
5. Capcom FY24 Q4 OP +270% YoY; FY25 Guidance Misses Expectations
6. Sony FY24 Q4 OP -11% YoY, FY25 CE Below Consensus
7. Sony: Problems Resurface on Live Service Side
8. Square Enix FY24 Q4 OP Beat, FY25 Guidance Cautious but Stock Split 3:1
9. CyberAgent: FY25 CE Unchanged
10. Other Tech-Related News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Chemicals / Materials
11. Chemical / Materials-Related News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Autos / New Mobility
12. Mazda FY24 Q4 OP Misses Estimates, No Guidance
13. Suzuki Motor FY24 Q4 Results Beat Estimates
14. Honda Guides FY25 OP Down -58.8% YoY on US Import Tariffs
15. Nissan Accelerates Restructuring – No FY25 Profit Guidance / Upbeat Comments from CEO
16. Subaru FY24 OP -62.8% YoY; No Full-Year Guidance
17. Isuzu’s FY24 Q4 Results and FY25 Guidance Miss Estimates
18. Bridgestone: Not Change to FY25 Guidance Despite US Import Tariff Impact
Auto Parts / Machinery / Capital Goods
19. KHI Sees High Volume Rethink
20. Fujikura FY25 OP Guidance -10% YoY
21. Furukawa Upside Surprise
Internet / eCommerce
22. Cover’s FY25 Guidance Below Street Due to Upfront Investment
23. Strong FY25 Q3 Performance Sends Istyle Shares Up Over +10%
24. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
25. Rakuten Shares Plummet as Losses Bigger than Expected
26. Net Protections: FY24 Results and FY25 Guidance Beats
Enterprise Software / IT Services
27. SRE Produces Strong FY24 Results and Bullish FY25 Forecasts
28. IIJ Forecasts OP Growth Recovery in FY25
29. PKSHA Beats FY25 Q2 Consensus OP Estimates
30. ExaWizards Scrapes into the Black, But Writes Down Value of Software
31. Appier Beats FY25 Q1 Consensus OP Estimates
Pharma / Healthcare
32. Shimadzu Falls Short of Consensus
33. Olympus: Positive FY24 Results but Disappointing FY25 Guidance
34. PeptiDream FY25 Q1 Slightly Below Consensus, Reaffirms Guidance
35. Sysmex FY24 Records Growth Across All Regions / Categories: FY25 CE Below Consensus
36. Eisai Shares Fall -5.5% on FY24 Results
37. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Small- / Mid-Cap Insights
38. Moriya Transport & Engineering Manufacturing FY24 Beats Consensus, Guides Conservatively
39. Japan Elevator Service FY24 Results Beat Guidance
40. Kyoritsu Maintenance FY24 OP Below Guidance, FY25 OP Above Consensus
41. TKP Subsidiaries Report Results
Miscellaneous / Market / Strategy / Macro
42. Multiple Business Service Stocks Hitting 52-Week Highs
43. Tough Times Again for Japan’s “Fallen Hero” Exporters
44. Bank Lending Slows to +2.5% YoY
45. Japan PPI +4.0% YoY in April
46. Japan CY25 Q1 GDP -0.2% QoQ / +1.6% YoY
47. The “30:10” Deal Provides the BoJ Room to Raise Rates
48. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
PSA in the Press
Autos / New Mobility analyst Julie Boote explains why Nissan will continue to struggle to win customers in the highly competitive BEV market in this Reuters article: Nissan is rolling out big cuts. Turning around sales will prove harder | Reuters
Julie also features in the follow Bloomberg article: Japanese Carmakers Face $19bil Hit from Trump’s Tariffs – 15 May
Pelham Smithers features in the following articles:
Sony Shares Fall on Guidance Miss, Growth Concerns: Street– Bloomberg [15 May] Screen Holdings Shares Fall After Cautious Outlook: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [12 May]
PSA Company Visits, Tours and Interviews
Visited: Open Up Group (2154 JT), Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544 JT), Intermestic (262 A), Lilycolor (9827 JT)
1-1 Call With: Kyoritsu Maintenance (9616 JT), Moriya Transportation Engine & Mfg. (6226 JT)
Presentations at: Anicom Holdings (8715 JT), Sanrio (8136 JT), Kakuyasu Group (7686 JT), Teijin (3401 JT), Sumitomo Bakelite (4203 JT), Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186 JT), Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (4182 JT), UBE Corp (4208 JT), Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JT), Dexerials (4980 JT), Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JT), Mitsui Chemicals (4183 JT), Mitsubishi Chemical Group (4188 JT), Tosoh (4042 JT), Kuraray (3405 JT), Toray (3402 JT), Central Glass (4044 JT), Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JT), Kaneka (4118 JT), Kioxia (285A JT), Resonac (4004 JT), Toho Titanium (5727 JT), Nissan Chemical (4021 JT), Nissan Motor (7201 JT), Honda Motor (7267 JT), Fujikura (5803 JT), Furukawa Electric (5801 JT), Niterra (5334 JT)
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