The Must Read PSA Weekly Research Round-up (week to 31 July)
Reports / Flash Notes Summaries
1. Can Sysmex (6869 JT) Start Recovering?
Blood diagnostics firm Sysmex has been out of vogue as a stock for so long that it is hard to believe that as recently as FY24 Q3 it delivered record quarterly operating profits. Analyst Pelham Smithers takes us through what to watch out for ahead of its FY26 Q1 results [due7 Aug].
2. Toyota (7203 JT) FY26 Q1 Preview: Results Set to Be Boosted by Currency
Analyst Julie Boote previews Toyota’s FY26 Q1 results which look set to be boosted by the currency. However, she explains why she does not anticipate an upward revision to the full-year
Industry Insights
Does the China DUV news change the IC / SPE / AI / DC story?
Company Previews & Results
Readthrough for Kioxia from SK Hynix NAND results
Anritsu: FY26 Q1 OP +219% YoY
Keyence’s blow-out FY26 Q1
NEC raises FY26 guidance on consensus busting Q1
Kioxia FY26 Q1 OP ¥1.27tril, falls short of expectations
Renesas FY26 Q2 OP +156% YoY
Fujitsu’s strong FY26 Q1 due to land sale
Company Previews & Results
Advantest FY26 Q1 OP +53% YoY, revises up
Hitachi FY26 Q1 OP +40% YoY, full-year guidance revised up
Fanuc sees upswing in FA and Robodrill demand
Mitsubishi Electric lifts OP guidance by +5%
Hoya FY26 Q1 OP +24% YoY
Koei Tecmo FY26 Q1 OP +51% YoY, misses consensus
Capcom FY26 Q1 OP +67% YoY
Konami: FY26 Q1 OP ¥45.3bil +63% YoY
NRI FY26 Q1 beats consensus
TISI FY26 Q1 beats consensus
TOK: FY26 Q2, full-year revised up
Asahi Kasei FY26 Q1 OP +51.5% YoY, yet no change to full-year
Komatsu raises guidance but still conservative
HCM decent FY26 Q1 and full-year guidance raised
Kinden strong FY26 Q1
MMC: FY26 Q1 preview
Denso FY26 Q1 profits miss estimates
Kurashiru: FY26 Q1 off to a good start
ZOZO: FY26 Q1 misses
Shimano FY26 Q2 OP +40% YoY, raises net income forecast
The Weekly Comment by Pelham Smithers
The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged a 1%, but markets didn’t seem particularly impressed. Pelham Smithers discusses whether the BoJ is behind the curve (again) or not.
Company / Sector / Thematic Comments at a Glance
Technology: Consumer Electronics, Gaming
1. Koei Tecmo FY26 Q1 OP +51% YoY, Misses Consensus
2. Capcom FY26 Q1 OP +67% YoY
3. Konami: FY26 Q1 OP +63% YoY
4. Sony FY26 Q1 OP +40% YoY
Technology: Industrial Electronics / Components / Semis & SPE / Precision
5. Does the China DUV News Change the IC / SPE / AI / DC Story?
6. Readthrough for Kioxia from SK Hynix NAND Results
7. Keyence Reports a Blow-Out FY26 Q1
8. Advantest: FY26 Q1 OP +53% YoY, Revises Up Full-Year Guidance
9. Hitachi: FY26 Q1 OP +40% YoY, Revises Up Full-Year Guidance
10. NEC: FY26 Q1 Preview / Results
11. Anritsu: FY26 Q1 OP +219% YoY
12. Kioxia FY26 Q1 OP ¥1.27tril, Falls Short of Expectations
13. Renesas FY26 Q2 OP +156% YoY
14. Fujitsu’s Strong FY26 Q1 Due to Land Sale
15. HOYA Q1 FY26 OP +24% YoY
Chemicals / Materials
16. Tokyo Ohka Revises Up FY26 Q2 and Full-Year Guidance
17. Asahi Kasei FY26 OP +51.3% YoY, Yet No Change to Full-Year Guidance
Autos / New Mobility
18. Mitsubishi Motors: FY26 Q1 Preview
19. Denso FY26 Q1 Profits Miss Estimates
Capital Goods / Machinery
20. Komatsu Raises Guidance but Still Conservative
21. Kinden Strong FY26 Q1
22. HCM: Decent FY26 Q1, Full-Year Guidance Raised
23. Fanuc Sees FA and Robodrill Upswing
24. Mitsubishi Electric Raises OP Guidance by +5%
Internet / eCommerce
25. Dentsu Surges to a One-year High
26. Kurashiru: FY26 Q1 Off to a Good Start
27. ZOZO: FY26 Q1 Misses
Enterprise Software / IT Services
28. NRI: FY26 Q1 Preview / Results
29. TISI: FY26 Q1 Preview / Results
Miscellaneous / Market / Strategy / Macro
30. Shimano FY26 Q2 OP +40% YoY, Raises Net Income Forecast
PSA in the Press
Japan’s GPIF Says to Act Only in Interest of Beneficiaries – Bloomberg [27 Jul]
Excerpt: “The political push is clearly in favor of more allocation to domestic assets,” said Pelham Smithers, head of UK-based Japan equity research firm Pelham Smithers Associates. The government’s call is likely in line with many market participants’ hopes, but rules around GPIF’s allocations are very restrictive, he said.
Advantest Poised For Strong 1Q on Memory, AI Demand: Preview – Bloomberg [28 Jul]
Pelham Smithers Associates (analyst)
Results will largely depend on how far the company has been able to expand production capacity
If new capacity has kicked in, then strong demand for memory testing should help it beat consensus
Advantest may see a pick-up in mainstream DRAM test orders ahead of time, as test service providers look to avoid an order backlog problem”
DRAM makers are keen to increase HBM capacity
NAND is also an “interesting opportunity” as shipments continue to surge
Sees FY 1Q OP of ¥170b and revenue of ¥356b
Toyota’s Crown Prince Prepares to Step Into the Spotlight – Bloomberg [29 Jul]
Excerpt: “This is problematic from a corporate governance point of view,” said Julie Boote, a London-based Japanese auto industry analyst at Pelham Smithers Associates. “While Japanese shareholders might not object, foreign shareholders might be taken aback by this sort of hereditary monarchy system in the 21st century.”
Komatsu Profit Forecast Hike Seen as Surprise: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [30 Jul]
Pelham Smithers (William Nestuk)
Komatsu’s raised guidance still look conservative
Pricing remains “very strong” though Komatsu has lowered its full-year assumptions slightly, partly due to the weak yen
Komatsu noted that data center and rental demand was strong in the US
Kioxia’s Stock Prospects Dimmed as Guidance, Returns Disappoint – Bloomberg [31 Jul]
Excerpt: “The 3-for-1 stock split seems “a little strange,” said Pelham Smithers, founder of UK-based Japan equity research firm, Pelham Smithers Associates. For stocks worth more than ¥20,000, “you might as well make the split a 10-for-1. By making it just 3:1 it hints at nervousness over how much further the shares could fall back,” he said. The firm’s earnings and guidance miss is an “excuse to sell” shares at a time when sentiment around the sustainability of the AI trade is already jittery, Smithers added.
Weak Yen Offers Toyota an Earnings Respite From Tariffs, War – Bloomberg [31 Jul]
Excerpt: ““The weak yen is a saving grace for Japanese automakers,” said Julie Boote, an analyst at London-based research firm Pelham Smithers Associates. “Currency gains will be important in lifting earnings in the first quarter. The issue is that the negative factors aren’t likely to disappear anytime soon.”
*If you would like access to the full weekly the reports highlighted, or the full Weekly (which includes the full comment) and if you would like to see the list of reports produced YTD, please contact our sales team.
You can also find PSA research on FactSet, Thomson Reuters (Reuters Knowledge, Thomson One Analytics, Starmine), Capital IQ, Bloomberg (under PSAZ < GO> or by typing in the < stock code> equity CN PSA), FactSet, Independent Research Forum
