The Must Read PSA Weekly Research Round-up (week to 06 February)
Reports / Flash Notes Summaries
TKP (3479 JT) – Back to Office Continues
This report is a follow up to our meeting with TKP post its FY25 Q3 results. Analyst Hiroyuki Terada has revised up his earnings model over FY25~FY27 and thinks the stock on undemanding valuations.
Extended Versions of the Following Articles are also Available
Sony (6758 JT) FY25 Q3 Review and Outlook – Pelham Smithers
Nintendo (7974 JT) – FY25 Q3 Review – Pelham Smithers
Might Nitto Boseki Deliver Big FY25 Q3 Beat? – Nicky Karanasou-Demertzi | Pelham Smithers
Healthcare Big Data Play JMDC’s (4483 JT) FY25 Q3, Guidance | Tie-Up with Fujitsu – Lindsay Whipp
Industry Insights
Video games round-up
Japan auto sales decline in Jan
Macro / Market / Misc.
December household spending data weak
Company News / Insights
Apple to change iPhone launch approach with “18” Series
ExaWizards offering solutions to another KEPCO subsidiary
Company Previews / Results
Nintendo: FY25 Q3 OP +23% YoY, below consensus
Sony FY25 Q3 OP +22% YoY, revises up
SQE FY25 Q3 OP +57% YoY
Megachips revises down on expected Q4 loss – readthrough for Nintendo
Murata: FY25 Q3 OP -50% YoY
TDK: FY25 Q3 OP +10% YoY, revises up
Mitsubishi Electric’s blow-out Q3
Fujifilm’s FY25 OP CE nudged up but slightly below consensus
Tokyo Seimitsu FY25 Q3 OP +10% YoY, revises up
Tokyo Electron FY25 Q3 OP -42% YoY, revises up
NEG FY25 Q4 OP +551% YoY, short of consensus
Sumitomo Chemical rises after boosting guidance
Ibiden: FY25 Q3 short of consensus, kept guidance
Yamaha Motors lowers NP guidance, cuts dividends
Mitsubishi Motors improves sales in Q3, profitability remains weak
Suzuki raises guidance on currency, lower costs
Denso lowers FY25 OP guidance on quality, tariff cost recuperation
Toyota raises FY25 guidance on currency; new CEO appointed
Subaru sharply lowers FY25 profit forecast
Nitto Boseki FY25 Q3 OP +23%, revises up
Kurashiru keeps FY25 guidance
DeNA revises downward due to impairment loss
CyberAgent’s FY26 Q1 well ahead of consensus
JMDC: FY25 Q3 preview / results; tie-up with Fujitsu
TIS FY25 Q3 sales beat consensus estimates, OP just shy
IIJ: FY25 Q3 preview
CUC’s FY25 Q4, so far, seems to be solid
Intermestic’s January KPIs solid
Anicom FY25 Q3 RP miss; completion of AXA policy transfers to support Q4
The Weekly Comment by Pelham Smithers
Whether companies are reporting full-year FY25 (Dec yr-end) results or guiding for the Mar yr-end FY25 full-year, there is an air of pointlessness in looking at results that may have little bearing on earnings performance to come.
While 2026 and beyond may indeed be very different to 2025, that doesn’t mean that we should totally ignore 2025 results.
Pelham Smithers explains.
Company / Sector / Thematic Comments at a Glance
Technology: Consumer Electronics, Gaming
1. Video Games Round-up
2. Apple to Change iPhone Launch Approach with “18” Series – Nikkei
3. Nintendo: FY25 Q3 OP +23% YoY, Short of Expectations
4. Panasonic: FY25 Q3 Sees Operating Loss on Restructuring Charges
5. Sony FY25 Q3 OP +22% YoY, Revises Up
6. Square Enix FY25 Q3 OP +57% YoY
7. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Technology: Industrial Electronics / Components / Semis & SPE / Precision
8. Murata: FY25 Q3 OP -50% YoY
9. TDK FY25 Q3 OP +10% YoY, Revises Up
10. Mitsubishi Electric’s Blow-Out Q3
11. Fujifilm’s FY25 OP Guidance Nudged Up, but Still Slightly Below Consensus
12. Tokyo Seimitsu FY25 Q3 OP +10% YoY, Revises Up
13. Tokyo Electron FY25 Q3 OP -42% YoY, Revises Up
14. Megachips Revises Down on Expected Q4 Loss – Readthrough for Nintendo
15. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Chemicals / Materials
16. Japan Vessel Chikyu Set to Return to Japan After Deep Sea Mud Excavation
17. Ibiden: FY25 Q3 Short of Consensus, Kept Guidance
18. Sumitomo Chemical Rises After Boosting Guidance
19. Chemical Companies’ Results Round-Up:
20. Might Nitto Boseki Deliver Big FY25 Q3 Beat? Yes, it Did and it Revised Up
21. Nippon Electric Glass Q4 OP +551% YoY, Short of Consensus
22. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Autos / New Mobility
23. Japan Auto Sales Decline in January
24. Yamaha Motors Lowers Net Profit Guidance, Cuts Dividends
25. Subaru: Guidance Upside on FX, Tariffs Remain a Risk Factor
26. Suzuki Raises Guidance on Currency, Lower Costs
27. Mitsubishi Motors Improves Sales in Q3, Profitability Remains Weak
28. Toyota Raises FY25 Guidance on Currency; New CEO Appointed
29. Subaru Sharply Lowers Profit Forecast
30. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Capital Goods / Machinery / Auto Parts
31. Denso Lowers FY25 OP Guidance on Quality, Tariff Cost Recuperation
32. MHI Guidance Very Conservative
33. Daikin Revises Down While Gaining Share
34. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Internet / eCommerce
35. Kurashiru Keeps FY25 Guidance Unchanged
36. Kakaku.com Keeps FY25 Guidance Unchanged
37. LY Corp Cuts FY25 Net Sales Guidance
38. DeNA Revises Downward Due to Impairment Loss
39. CyberAgent’s FY26 Q1 Well Ahead of Consensus
40. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Enterprise Software / IT Services
41. IT Service Sector Stocks Sold Off [4 Feb] Indiscriminately Following Down European and US Peers on AI Fears
42. ExaWizards Provides Yet Another AI Solution to KEPCO Subsidiary
43. IIJ: FY25 Q3 Preview / Results
44. JMDC’s FY25 Q3 OP Slightly Ahead of Consensus Estimates, Announces Tie-Up with Fujitsu
45. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Small- / Mid-Cap Insights
46. CUC’s FY25 Q4, So Far, Seems to be Solid / Meeting Takeaway
47. Intermestic’s January KPIs Solid
48. Anicom FY25 Q3 RP Miss; Completion of AXA Policy Transfers to Support Q4
Macro / Market / Strategy / Misc.
49. December Household Spending Data Weak
50. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
PSA in the Press
Sony Extends Rally as FY Forecast Hike Boosts Mood: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [6 Feb]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Pelham Smithers)
Results were strong and forecast hike is a plus for the share price
Strong game revenues were due to “an impressive performance” from the network services segment, where monthly active users hit a new high
Management said they have secured enough memory supply for 2026 holiday sales, but did not mention console pricing
o “Sony can jack up the price of the PS5/PS5 Pro and it doesn’t matter whether the hardware sells, because it already has a large installation base”
o Game software sales could take a hit if higher PlayStation prices mean fewer console sales, however
“It was a good performance but because of the memory situation it is difficult to read too much into it”
Mitsubishi Motors Shares Rise After 3Q Net Sales Beat Estimates – Bloomberg [6 Feb]
Excerpt: The company improved its sales in the third quarter, writes Pelham Smithers Associates analyst Julie Boote in a note
o Net sales came in above consensus estimates of ¥702.6b
o Improvements in its operating profit which looked much stronger quarter-on-quarter “came from a much lower base of comparison”
o The company saw forex gains of ¥2.3b and lower R&D which was positive
Renesas to Get Boost From AI Chip Boom: Preview – Bloomberg [4 Feb]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Pelham Smithers):
Renesas, like Texas Instruments, should benefit from the move into physical AI
Nintendo Shares Drop on 3Q OP Miss, Memory Concerns: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [4 Feb]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Pelham Smithers)
Full-year forecasts were left unchanged but are “effectively a downward revision” as currency assumptions were raised
Selling the Switch 2 at a discount in the US holiday season was one reason profits fell short of estimates
o The fact the new console “isn’t selling a lot of software” is another problem
o “For Nintendo to have a lower tie-ratio for the Switch 2 after 17m consoles sold than it did with the Switch is both concerning with regards short-term performance, but also longer term”
Nintendo Switch 2 May Face Price Hike – Outlook Respawn [3 Feb]
Excerpt: Pelham Smithers, a UK-based gaming-sector equity analyst, stated Nintendo faces “an absolute horror-show on the cost of building a console” unless memory prices ease.
https://respawn.outlookindia.com/amp/story/gaming/gaming-news/nintendo-switch-2-may-face-price-hike-as-memory-costs-surge
Lasertec Shares Slide as Orders Outlook Underwhelms: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [2 Feb]
Pelham Smithers Associates (Pelham Smithers)
OP target “looks low,” even taking into account seasonal factors
However, company is still the only maker of EUV mask tests, “and its newer machines appear to be doing well”
PSA Company Visits, Tours and Interviews
Visited: CUC (9158 JT)
1-1 Call with: Anicom Holdings (8715 JT)
Presentations at: CUC (9158 JT), M&A Capital Partners (8060 JT), Open Up Group (2154 JT), Sumitomo Bakelite (4203 JT), TDK (6762 JT), Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JT), Teijin (3401 JT), Asahi Kasei (3407 JT), Nippon Sanso (4091 JT), UBE Corp (4208 JT), Konica Minolta (4902 JT), Fujifilm Holdings (4901 JT), Mitsui Chemicals (4183 JT), Mitsubishi Chemical Group (4188 JT), KH Neochem (4189 JT), Mitsubishi Electric (6403 JT), Denso (6902 JT), Aisin (7259 JT), Hitachi Construction (6305 JT), MHI (7011 JT), Daikin (6367 JT), CyberAgent (4751 JT)
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