The Must Read PSA Weekly Research Round-up (week to 01 August)
Company Results Releases
Capcom FY25 Q1 beats consensus
Nintendo FY25 Q1 OP +4% YoY as Switch 2 launch doubles sales
Tech results: Advantest, Keyence, NEC, Anritsu, Panasonic, Kyocera, Hitachi, Socionext, TEL, Casio, TDK
Zeon’s modest FY25 revision up
Asahi Kasei lifts H1 guidance on strong pharma sales
Nissan FY25 Q1 OP loss less than consensus / results scrutinised
Hino reports sharp drop in FY25 Q1 sales, OP up on cost savings
Komatsu FY25 Q1 disappoints
HCM cuts full-year OP guidance
SEI strong Q1 supports Fujikura
Denso disappoints, Aisin surprises
Mitsubishi Electric hits a new high on good FY25 Q1
Nabtesco results send shares up +11% to 2-year high
Company Previews / Results
ZOZO’s FY25 Q1 OP beats, but full-year OP target revised down
Dely’s FY25 Q1 beats consensus
IT service plays NRI, TIS beat FY25 Q1 consensus
Astellas FY25 Q1 OP +87% YoY
MARI FY25 Q3 OP -65% YoY
MACP: Fewer larger-sized deals in FY25 Q3
Insource July KPIs
Toyota FY25 Q1 preview
DTS Corp FY25 Q1 preview
Company Insights / News
Kioxia begins 512Gb TLC NAND flash sample shipments using 9th Gen BiCS
AD drug development news should be positive for Chugai
M&A Capital completes 96 M&A deals in CY25 1H
Fujikura new high on strong Corning Q2
Industry Insights
Video games round-up
Miscellaneous / Market / Macro
Ishiba to meet with LDP lawmakers
Did the Bank of Japan resume tapering in July?
Economics round-up
The Weekly Comment by Pelham Smithers
With 22 “beats” and 18 “misses”, this has been a patchy results season, with the effects made worse by the market caring more about the misses than the beats.
One miss in particular stands out – that of Tokyo Electron. Pelham Smithers looks into the reasons behind the short-fall.
Company / Sector / Thematic Comments at a Glance
Technology: Consumer Electronics, Gaming
1. Video Games Round-Up
2. Capcom FY25 Q1 OP +91% YoY, Beats Expectations
3. Nintendo FY25 Q1 OP +4% YoY as Switch 2 Launch Doubles Sales
4. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Technology: Industrial Electronics / Components / Semis & SPE / Precision
5. Kioxia Begins 512Gb TLC NAND Flash Sample Shipments Using 9th Gen BiCS
6. Advantest FY25 Q1 +4x YoY, Revises Up Full-Year Guidance
7. NEC FY25 Q1 OP +8x YoY
8. Tech Results Round-Up at a Glance Part 1: Keyence, Anritsu, Panasonic, Kyocera
9. Tech Results Round-Up Part 2: Hitachi, Socionext, TEL
10. Tech Results Round-Up at a Glance Part 3: Casio, TDK
11. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Chemicals / Materials
12. Zeon’s Modest FY25 Upward Revision
13. Asahi Kasei Lifts FY25 H1 Guidance on Strong Pharma Sales
14. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Autos / New Mobility
15. Toyota FY25 Q1 Preview
16. Hino Reports Sharp Drop in FY25 Q1 Sales, OP Up on Cost Savings
17. Nissan’s FY25 Q1 Op-Loss Less Than Consensus on Model Mix, One-Time Gains / Results Scrutinised
Capital Goods / Machinery /Auto Parts
18. Komatsu’s FY25 Q1 Results Slightly Disappoints
19. Fujikura New High on Corning Q2
20. HCM Cuts OP Guidance by -14%
21. SEI Strong Q1 Supports Fujikura
22. Denso Disappoints, Aisin Surprises
23. Mitsubishi Electric Hits a New High on Good FY25 Q1 Performance
24. Nabtesco Rises +11% to 2-Year High
Internet / eCommerce
25. Dely FY25 Q1 Preview / Results Beat
26. ZOZO FY25 Q1 Preview / Results
27. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Enterprise Software / IT Services
28. DTS Corp FY25 Q1 Preview
29. NRI FY25 Q1 Results Beat Consensus Estimates, Sending Shares Higher
30. TIS FY25 Q1 Beat Adds to Growing List of IT Service Sector Company Outperformance
Pharma / Healthcare
31. AD Drug Development News Should be Positive for Chugai Pharm
32. Astellas FY25 Q1 OP +87% YoY
33. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
Small- / Mid-Cap Insights
34. M&A Capital Partners: M&A League Tables / FY25 Q3 Results
35. M&A Research Institute FY25 Q3 OP Slumps -65% YoY
36. Insource July KPIs
Miscellaneous / Market / Strategy / Macro
37. Ishiba to Meet with LDP Lawmakers
38. Did the Bank of Japan Resume Tapering in July?
39. Economics Round-Up
40. SBI Holdings Reports One-Off Charge / Provisional FY25 Q1 PTP +75% YoY
41. Other News & Moves That Caught Our Eye
PSA in the Press
Technology analyst Pelham Smithers features in the following articles:
Japan Investors Brace for BOJ, Earnings After Trump-Fueled Rally – Bloomberg [27 Jul]
o “You’ve certainly got the makings of an extended rally. But the bigger questions will be Bank of Japan policy, and whether Trump backtracks on this tariff deal.”
Renesas Shows Recovery Signs Despite Wolfspeed Hit: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [28 Jul]
o Rise in OP for two consecutive quarters points to “a business that is on the mend” but write down on Wolfspeed is “painful,” if not totally unexpected
o Auto business still “pretty bad,” but integrated circuit sales have recovered to around where they were a year ago
o If industrial IC business keeps improving, “Renesas can quickly deliver impressive numbers”.
Advantest Shares Fluctuate After Outlook Miss: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [30 Jul]
o Earnings are “very impressive,” despite management comments that the integrated circuit industry is slightly sluggish
o New guidance seems conservative and “looks there to be beaten”
o However, will be challenging to meet AI-related demand, and more competitors are also entering the market.
Tokyo Electron Shares Plummet After Forecast Cut: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [1 Aug]
o Market was ready for a weak 1Q — sales and OP consensus had been cut — but China demand “proved even more of a problem than feared”
o Weak demand for mature generation equipment in China is a “big worry”
Autos / New Mobility analyst Julie Boote features in the following article:
Nissan Shares Rise on 1Q Beat, Turnaround Progress: Street Wrap – Bloomberg [27 Jul]
o Better-than-expected 1Q was partly fuelled by cost-saving measures and an improved model mix, which helped sales but a boost from model mix is “temporary positive factor,” as demand for Nissan products overall remains low
o Cash flow and liquidity remain a concern – “markets are likely to remain nervous about the automaker’s capacity to repay its loans and the costs of servicing its bonds”
o Despite some “signs of stabilization” in earnings, does not expect most positive factors from 1Q to be maintained.
PSA Company Visits, Tours and Interviews
1-1 Call with: M&A Capital Partners (6080 JT), Insource (6200 JT)
Market Research: Intermestic’s (262A JT) Zoff Stores
Presentations at: Asahi Kasei (3407 JT), Zeon Corp (4205 JT), TDK (6762 JT), Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JT), Nitto Denko (6988 JT), Mitsubishi Chemical Group (4188 JT), Hoya Corp (7741 JT), Tokuyama Corp (4043 JT), M&A Research Institute (9552 JT), ZOZO (3092 JT), Komatsu (6301 JT), HCM (6305 JT), Denso (6902 JT), Aisin Seiki (7259 JT), SEI (5802 JT), Nabtesco (6268 JT), Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JT), Toyoda Industries (6201 JT)
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